Publications

Search and Filter Fields

Type into the field below to perform a live search and/or apply filters via the button provided.

  • Clear

224 Publications found…

  • Working Paper 31 July 2025

    The dynamics of the trade elasticity: Evidence from the 2018 US trade war

    By Nicolò Tamberi.

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    This Working Paper investigates the trade elasticity. Elasticity determines the expected impact of tariff changes on trade flows, and it also plays a key role in calculating the welfare gains from trade in economic models.

    Topics

  • Blog post 29 July 2025

    Asia and “reciprocal tariffs”: Is regionalism the antidote? (Hinrich Foundation)

    By L. Alan Winters CB.

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Asian countries have many trade agreements, but these are not a unified system and most are shallow. Without expansion, they will not produce new trade flows to counter losses in US markets. A global response to Trump’s tariffs based on World Trade Organization rules is desirable says L. Alan Winters in this Hinrich Foundation blog.

    Topics

  • In The Media 28 July 2025

    Did Europe Misplay Its Hand in Trade Negotiations with US? (CGTN Europe)

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Is the EU–US trade deal the best the EU could get? Professor L. Alan Winters talks to CGTN Europe: The deal "is the best possible outcome, although the EU may have lost some leverage (credibility) by suspending retaliatory measures in April. As a result of the deal, consumers in the US will pay higher prices for various EU goods or goods that contain EU inputs, but for EU consumers, not very much has changed." He also highlights that the US and China are squaring up to each other, and the EU needs to recognise that it has moved into third place in terms of geopolitics.

    Topics

  • Academic Paper 25 July 2025

    Asia and “Reciprocal Tariffs” Is Regionalism the Antidote?

    By L. Alan Winters CB et al.

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Asian countries are signatories to many trade agreements that have featured innovation, steady persistent cooperation, and large coalitions, all of which are factors that may be important in preserving the world trading system from the Trump administration’s tariffs. However, these agreements are not a unified system and are mostly shallow; thus, without extension they will not produce new trade flows to counter losses in U.S. markets. Although President Donald Trump’s trade policy is chaotic and destructive, his new trade restrictions are unlikely to disappear completely, even with international pressure and hostile equity and bond markets. No Asian country will be able to avoid economic stresses resulting from the reduction in world growth that these policies could cause. The most vulnerable will be the developing countries that have actively pursued export-led development with the U.S. as a primary partner. With uncertainty prevalent, a global response to Trump’s tariffs based on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules is desirable.

    Topics

  • Evidence 25 July 2025

    General Terms for the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal

    By Achyuth Anil, Ingo Borchert, Peter Holmes, Emily Lydgate, Minako Morita Jaeger, Sunayana Sasmal and Maurizio Zanardi et al.

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    In response to this inquiry by the International Agreements Committee, our evidence reviews the impact of this deal including its implications to the UK’s future trade relationships, compatibility with WTO rules and how Parliament can assess the value and scrutinise future agreements of this nature. Our key points include: While the UK seeks short-term gains through flexible, non-binding agreements like the EPD, such deals risk undermining the global rules-based trading system. This approach could lead to increased economic conflict and supply chain disruptions, particularly as preferential arrangements (e.g., for US ethanol) affect other partners. The UK, as a smaller economy, would be better served by upholding multilateral principles, including legal enforceability and non-discrimination. Aligning too closely with the US—especially on supply chain security and China-related trade controls—could damage relations with other key partners, including the EU.

    Topics

  • In The Media 24 July 2025

    India-U.K. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (LBC News)

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Following the release of the final text of the India-U.K. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) in July 2025, Achyuth Anil, comments on LBC News (13.24) that the deal is great for goods and service sectors for both countries.

    Topics

  • Podcast 16 July 2025

    US trade policy in the first 6 months of Trump's second term

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Series 6, Episode 8 - July 20, 2025, is six months since Trump’s inauguration for a second term in the White House. Since then, all previous norms of trade engagement have gone out of the window with the imposition (or threat) of tariffs on goods at rather arbitrary levels and out of line with WTO rules. Almost every supplier country now has its own personalised tariff rate – and some of the world’s least developed countries face the highest tariffs. In this episode, Meredith Crowley (CITP/University of Cambridge), Stephanie Rickard (London School of Economics), Chad Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) discuss what Trump might be trying to achieve with these measures. They also analyse the impact on America’s trading partners – and the global trading system – and how both may react to these challenges from Washington.

    Topics

  • Podcast 9 July 2025

    UK-EU agrifood (SPS) negotiations

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Series 6, Episode 7 - In May, Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched a reset of the EU-UK relationship which included an agreement to begin negotiations on a deal on agri-food standards - an ‘SPS agreement’. The talks offer the prospect of a big reduction in the bureaucratic restrictions that have festooned cross-Channel agri-food trade since Brexit, but there are still a lot of questions about exactly how. In this podcast, Emily Lydgate (CITP, University of Sussex), Alex Carson-Taylor (international trade specialist), Sue Davies (Which?) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) discuss the potential limitations inherent in the approach which London and Brussels have embarked on, the pitfalls that the negotiators might need to avoid, what it all means for Northern Ireland trade and the prospects for agri-food deals with other countries.

    Topics

  • Evidence 8 July 2025

    General Terms for the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal

    By Emily Lydgate et al.

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    Professor Emily Lydgate provides oral evidence to the International Agreements Committee of the House of Lords on UK-US trade, in particular the general terms published in relation to the economic prosperity deal (EPD). From a UK perspective, the EPD helps protect jobs in particular sectors like automotive (e.g. Jaguar Land Rover) and reinforces constructive UK-US relations. However, it offers limited certainty. It is not a binding trade agreement, but rather a response to political pressure and evolving US demands, especially from the Trump administration. This uncertainty takes away the businesses ability to plan. Additionally, the sectoral focus is very narrow, offering limited tariff relief beyond a few targeted industries, while broader issues such as the continued 10% reciprocal tariffs remains unresolved leaving us in a worse place than we were before this all started.

    Topics

  • Blog post 26 June 2025

    The UK Trade Strategy: Fit for the World?

    By Michael Gasiorek and Emily Lydgate.

    View post

    Summary CITP publication

    In this blog, we highlight some key initial reflections on the UK's Trade Strategy

    Topics

    None.