GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2024

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, following no growth in the previous quarter.

• The services sector increased by 0.2% in output terms for Quarter 4 2024; construction also grew, by 0.5%, while production fell by 0.8%.

• There were falls in expenditure terms in net trade and gross fixed capital formation for Quarter 4 2024 that were offset by a large increase in change in inventories.

• Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in Quarter 4 2024, mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees.

• Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 4 2024.

• Real GDP increased by 0.9% across 2024, while real GDP per head fell by 0.1%.

• This release includes revisions to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024; growth in real GDP in Quarter 1 2024 has been revised up 0.1 percentage points, while growths in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) and Quarter 3 2024 are unrevised.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, following unrevised no growth in the previous quarter (Figure 1). Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.4%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in December 2024 because of growth in services and production, as shown in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2024 bulletin. This follows an unrevised increase of 0.1% in November 2024 and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2024.

This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 because of updated and revised source data. This is in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy. We have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2024 onwards based on these new data.

The quarterly path of real GDP at an aggregated level is unrevised from Quarter 2 (Apr to June) to Quarter 3 2024, with an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points in Quarter 1 2024. There have been some revisions to individual components of GDP. For more information, see Section 7: Revisions to GDP.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2023 onwards are shown in Table 4.

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 4 2024. This is up 0.4%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Our first estimate shows that there was a slight fall in GDP per head of 0.1% in 2024.

We have updated the population estimates for 2023 and 2024, as announced in our National Accounts Revision Policy: updated February 2025. This is in line with our National population projections: 2022-based bulletin, published on 28 January 2025, and uses migration statistics from our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024 bulletin.

See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in Quarter 4 2024, mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees. Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 5.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

The implied price of GDP rose by 1.0% in Quarter 4 2024, mainly driven by higher prices in both government and household consumption. The GDP implied deflator grew by 4.2%, compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP in 2024 is now estimated to have increased by 0.9%, following growth of 0.4% in 2023.

The three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned (Figure 3). However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the 2023 and 2024 production cycle until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. For those periods that have not yet been fully balanced in the SUTs framework, the annual growth reflects an average of the estimates to the three approaches. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is discussed in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, following no growth (unrevised) in the previous quarter. GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in December 2024 because of growth in services and production, as shown in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2024 bulletin. This follows an unrevised increase of 0.1% in November 2024 and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2024.

The services sector increased by 0.2% in the latest quarter. Construction output also grew, by 0.5%, while production fell by 0.8%. Early estimates show that 11 out of 20 of the subsectors grew across Quarter 4 2024, which is down from 12 in the previous quarter.

Services

Services output increased by 0.2% in the latest quarter, following unrevised no growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Services output is estimated to have increased by 1.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.2% in Quarter 4 2024, while consumer-facing services increased by 0.1%.

The services sector increased by 1.3% across 2024. Non-consumer-facing services increased by 1.6%, while consumer-facing services fell by 0.2%.

Figure 4 shows 8 out of 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth in Quarter 4 2024. The largest positive contributor to growth was human health and social work activity, which increased by 0.9%. For more information, see the subsection on Consumption of government goods and services in Section 4: Expenditure.

The second largest positive contribution to growth was from the professional, scientific and technical activities subsector, which grew by 0.9%. Within this subsector, seven out of eight of the industries contributed positively to growth.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 4 2024 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 1.4%. This was largely driven by a 5.3% fall in employment activities.

More detail on services can be found in our Index of Services, UK: December 2024 bulletin.

Total services growth in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024 have both been revised up 0.1 percentage points and Quarter 3 2024 is unrevised. The revisions in these two quarters are mainly because of late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns and other updated source data.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter, with a 0.8% decline in Quarter 4 2024. Production output is estimated to have fallen by 1.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Production output fell by 1.7% for 2024 as a whole.

The fall in production was largely driven by a 0.7% decline in manufacturing and a 2.5% decline in mining and quarrying. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply decreased by 0.7%. Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 1.2%.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.7% in Quarter 4 2024 and declined by 0.7% in 2024. Figure 5 shows that there have been falls in 7 out of 13 of the subsectors in the latest quarter. The largest negative contributions from the manufacture of transport equipment, which fell by 2.3%, and the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, which fell by 4.0%.

The manufacture of transport has fallen for three consecutive quarters, mainly because of a decline in the manufacture of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Anecdotal evidence from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed a fall in vehicle production, as described in their news update on UK manufacturing.

Further detail on production can be found in our Index of Production, UK: December 2024 bulletin.

Production output growth has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points in Quarter 1 2024 and revised up by 0.1 percentage points in Quarter 3 2024. This was mainly driven by manufacturing, and the mining and quarrying subsectors. These changes reflect late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns and updated seasonal adjustment models.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 4 2024, following a 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. The level of construction output was 0.9% higher in Quarter 4 2024 than the same quarter a year ago and increased by 0.4% in 2024.

New work increased by 1.2% in Quarter 4 2024 and repair and maintenance fell by 0.4%. The largest contributor to the increase within new work came from private new housing, which grew by 1.3%. The largest negative contributor in repair and maintenance came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.5%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices October to December 2024.

Looking at the expenditure approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP), there were falls in net trade and gross fixed capital formation in the latest quarter. These falls were offset by a large increase in gross capital formation: other, specifically change in inventories and the expenditure alignment adjustment (Figure 6).

Household consumption

There was no growth in real household expenditure in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024. This follows revised growth of 0.6% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 (previously a 0.5% increase). Within household consumption, increases in restaurants and hotels, and housing were offset by declines in food and drink, and education. Household consumption is estimated to have increased by 0.7% across 2024.

Net tourism had little contribution to household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the GDP aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts.

Revisions to household consumption across 2024 are mainly because of updated data and applied balancing adjustments.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure increased by 0.8% in Quarter 4 2024 and is 2.1% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increased expenditure on public administration and defence, and higher activity in health.

Government consumption had small revisions over the course of 2024. This is mainly because of updated data for several components, including hospital data, and a review of our seasonal adjustment models.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is estimated to have fallen by 0.9% in the latest quarter. This follows a downwardly revised increase of 1.0% in Quarter 3 2024. Growth was mainly driven by a 22.9% fall in transport. However, this follows strong growth of 10.3% in Quarter 3 2024.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 3.2% in Quarter 4 2024. Business investment is estimated to have fallen by 0.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Business investment increased by 0.8% across 2024, compared with 2023. Revisions in GFCF and business investment partly reflect revised survey data and updates to our seasonal adjustment model.

Excluding the alignment and balancing adjustments, early estimates show that real inventories increased by £4.5 billion in Quarter 4 2024. This was driven by higher stocks in manufacturing (Table 2).

Net trade

The UK’s trade deficit for goods and services was 1.6% of nominal GDP in Quarter 4 2024. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit was 1.4% of nominal GDP in Quarter 4 2024 (Figure 8).

Export volumes fell for the third consecutive quarter, with a 2.5% decline in the latest quarter. The fall in the latest quarter was driven by a 6.9% decline in goods exports, which offset a 1.2% increase in services exports. The decrease in goods exports was mainly driven by fuels, and machinery and transport equipment.

Import volumes increased by 2.1% in the latest quarter, driven by increases of 2.0% and 2.1% in goods and services imports, respectively. The increase in goods imports was driven by large movements in non-monetary gold. However, this series also appears within gross capital formation (GCF) as valuables, so the effect is GDP neutral.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 and is up 4.8% in 2024. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 8).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 2.2% in the latest quarter. This was driven by an increase of 2.3% in wages and salaries, and a 1.5% increase in employers' social contributions. The rise in wages and salaries reflects increases in both private sector and public sector. Public sector wages saw increases because of backdated pay settlements in both the education and health sectors.

Compensation of employees grew by 6.0% across 2024. Wages and salaries increased by 5.8% and employers' social contributions increased by 7.0%.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy from our Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employees estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK: January 2025 bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Revisions in compensation of employees mainly reflect the removal of previous balancing adjustments and some small updates to source data.

Other income

Other income increased by 1.5% in the latest quarter. This was driven by growth in mixed income, from self-employment and rental income, and other gross operating surplus, from households.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have fallen by 0.8% in Quarter 4 2024. There was a 0.8% fall in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax) and a 1.0% fall in subsidies, which contribute positively to GDP.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations excluding the alignment adjustment fell by 1.1% in Quarter 4 2024 (Table 3). This is mainly because of a decline in private non-financial and financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 (Figure 9), and is down 0.1% across 2024.

We have updated the population estimates for 2023 and 2024, as announced in our National Accounts Revision Policy: updated February 2025. This is in line with our National population projections: 2022-based bulletin, published on 28 January 2025, and uses migration statistics from our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024 bulletin.

The dataset is open to revision back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 as part of this publication, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. Data for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 are published for the first time.

Figure 1 shows the revised estimates of average real gross domestic product (GDP), compared with the previous estimate. Table 4 shows quarter-on-quarter growth at different publication vintages for real GDP. Annex tables AE to AG in our GDP data tables show the revisions to the main components of GDP and revision triangles for GDP and components are available.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative), as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There is different data content and quality of the three approaches: the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach. This dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP (gross domestic product), our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 showed that the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned. However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2023 and 2024 until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates release. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2022, holds constant into 2023 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growths terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter where the constraints are larger, where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. The balancing adjustments applied in this estimate are shown in Table 7. The resulting series should be considered accordingly.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HMRC implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

HMRC data feed notice

His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) is an important supplier for detailed trade data. There are differences in scope and coverage of trade data between HMRC and Office for National Statistics (ONS) publications.

During our routine quality assurance, an error was identified in the data that HMRC delivered to us relating to the January 2023 reference period onwards. HMRC has identified and resolved the cause of the error in the data feed and we have worked together to investigate its impact, with the extraction error predominantly affecting non-EU countries, particularly goods imports from China and Japan. There is minimal impact to United States goods imports data.

We are currently undertaking further processing and working towards correcting the data feeding into UK trade estimates in the Quarterly National Accounts release publishing on 28 March 2025 and the UK Trade release publishing on 11 April 2025. This is the earliest practical opportunity in line with the National Accounts Revision Policy.

Preliminary investigations suggest that when the correction is made, there will be a level shift in trade in goods imports data. It is expected that this will have minimal impact on quarterly GDP growth rates but needs to be considered alongside any standard revisions to other components of GDP.

Caution is advised when using imports data. Preliminary indicative estimates of this impact are available in Table 4 in Section 14: Data sources and quality As these are indicative impacts, which we are still working through our systems, we would recommend users continue to use the headline trade figures included in this release.

UK population data for GDP per head calculations in the National Accounts publication

We have used 2022-based national population projections (NPPs) for 2023 and 2024 in place of mid-year population estimates, because this is a UK-level release. This was announced in our National Accounts Revision Policy: updated February 2025.

This is because the latest NPP release incorporates estimates of long-term international migration for mid-2023 and mid-2024, as published on 28 November 2024. For users requiring more granular population statistics for mid-2023 and mid-2024 (by constituent country and more detailed geographies, age, and sex) we refer you to population estimates that are available for these years.

Updated population estimates including revisions to years up to mid-2024 will be available later in 2025.

Strengths and limitations

The UK national accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP QMI.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".